Accepting that there is still hope, the prospect of putting forward and developing common projects by riparian countries to jointly utilize the Nile waters is a lost opportunity, claim experts.
It is to be recalled that the joint multi-purpose projects which had been initiated in the Eastern Nile in 2005, ended up as a paper tiger short after the withdrawal of the lower riparian states from the initiative.
But Ethiopia in particular has been showing a good gesture and eager to initiate mega infrastructural projects that would ensure the interests of all states in the basin.
And by the year 2011, the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) was commenced as part of this will to ensure common development and prosperity.
Afterwards, heated discussions have been conducted among the leaders of Ethiopia, the Sudan and Egypt for the last seven years with a bid to reach common consensus regarding the shared resources of the Nile.
Particularly, the three countries’ foreign as well as water resources ministers have been busy discussing the way forward to promote equitable utilization of the Nile.
However, the three countries were unable to reach agreements as they failed to make compromises on their solitary interests for the sake of promoting common interests and win-win outcomes that would make every party come out victorious.
Since the commencement of the construction of GERD, Egypt tends to always have a vague position. Egypt had been calling for third party mediator to settle down differences.
While the situation was of no hope for many observers who have been following the issues, very recently, there has been reason for optimism as the three countries normalized their positions by reaching agreement to set up a group of experts from each to conduct an autonomous scientific survey on the filling and operation of the Dam.
This gives a glimmer of hope that that situation might improve but would by no means get in the way for someone to ask ‘was the prospect of developing common projects along the Nile a lost opportunity?
The previous study presented by the consulting firm BRL was received by Ethiopia and the Sudan with sense of optimism, Egypt on the other hand was not willing either to accept or forward comments.
However, during the recent consultation at the trilateral meeting in Addis Ababa, the countries have agreed to comment on the report presented by the consultant.
Furthermore, agreement was also reached that the three countries’ leaders to meet and discuss the issue twice a year in rotation.
Last but not least, the Addis Ababa meeting was concluded by agreeing to establish infrastructure investment fund which will be approved by the three countries on June 4 and 5, 2018 in Cairo.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Meles Alem has quoted by several news agencies as saying that the three countries have reached a ‘breakthrough’ agreement.For Kahsay Gebrehiwot, Political Science and International Relations Lecture at Aksum University, the Dam filling stage is the hydro political climax.
"But this stage should be implemented critically through consultation and the agreement reached recently to set up team of technical experts is the solution to ensure the national interest of all the riparian countries."
The pulling factors that brought Egypt to agreements are the current construction stage of GERD and the recent improvements in the internal political stability in Ethiopia, Fekahmed Negash, Executive Director of Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) tells the Ethiopian Herald.
Built on this idea, Kahsay for his part says that the other reason is the diplomatic success of Ethiopia in building trust in the eye of other riparian countries including the Sudan which was signatory to the 1959 outdated treaty.
The growing influence of the upper riparian countries including Ethiopia in the global financial institutions such as WB and IMF is another factor that forced Egypt to come to the cooperation framework, Kahsay adds.
However, this doesn’t mean that it will go according to the recent agreement Fekahmed adds. He seems to be skeptical in explaining the fact that Egypt has long time record of changing its stand after scrutinizing it in the internal political mindset.
History tells us there has not been actual war caused by water, says Kahsay being confident that common understanding and cooperation should be the means to exploit water resources.
To ensure mutual understanding, there is high need to develop common developmental projects among the riparian countries, says Kahsay who is also a researcher in the Nile and Senegalese river basins.
He notes that there are two common hydro projects in the Senegalese basin jointly owned and developed by three riparian states – Mali, Mauritania and Senegal. And as to him, the Eastern Nile must have such projects in order to promote equitable utilization of the water resources.
Cooperation is a must in any transboundary rivers. Acting out of the cooperation framework has its own cost. In any case, the cost is more severe in the lower riparian countries if the worst has happened, according to Fekahmed.